Trail books are priced as a multiple of the trail they currently generate over twelve months. A book earning $100,000 of annual trail sold at 3× changes hands for $300,000. The multiple is the market's shorthand for how long the buyer expects the trail to keep flowing and how much risk sits inside it.
Reported Australian sales through FY2024–25 clustered around 3×, with a working range of 2.5× to 3.5×. Books at the top of that range share traits: run-off under 10%, few loans still inside a clawback window, a spread of lenders rather than concentration in one, low arrears, and clean records that reconcile to the aggregator's statements. Books at the bottom have the opposite profile or come with a seller who is leaving the industry and cannot support the handover.
The multiple is where retention work pays off twice. Every client kept adds to the trail being multiplied and, by lowering run-off, nudges the multiple itself.